Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages

 

Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages 

Table 1.

Descriptive Statistics and Bivariate Analysis by Age Structure Categories, National Survey of Japanese Elderly Adults, Waves 1–7 (n = 16,957)

Baseline age structure of residential municipality (% 65-plus) Quintiles 1 and 2 (“Younger”) Quintiles 3&4 (“Intermediate”) Quintile 5 (“Older”) Total sample
Fair/poor SRH (%), (SD) 16.0 (0.4) 16.8 (0.4) 19.0* (0.4) 16.9 (0.4)
Worse C-SRH (%), (SD) 11.4 (0.3) 13.1* (0.4) 14.4* (0.4) 12.7 (0.3)
% 65-plus at baseline; mean (SD) 8.4 (1.4) 12.5* (1.2) 17.5* (2.8) 11.7 (3.7)
Change in Municipality % 65-plus (between survey waves); mean (SD) 1.4 (0.6) 1.5* (0.5) 1.7* (0.7) 1.5 (0.6)
Age, mean (SD) 72.8 (7.2) 73.1 (7.2) 72.8 (7.3) 72.9 (7.2)
Female (%) 58.5 55.1* 56.7 56.8
Married (%) 60.0 63.1* 65.4* 62.3
Working (%) 22.7 27.0* 32.6* 26.4
Education (%):
 No answer 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.7
 No high school 39.3 41.1* 46.4* 41.5
 Some/completed high school 41.4 43.0 41.4 42.0
 >High school 17.9 13.9* 10.7* 14.8
Income (%):
 Did not answer 15.6 15.1 17.0 15.7
 <¥1.2 Mil 17.6 23.1* 25.5* 21.4
 ≥¥1,2 Mil-<¥3.0 Mil 36.3 32.9 31.3* 33.9
 ≥¥3.0 Mil-<¥5.0 Mil 19.3 18.9 18.1 18.9
 ≥¥5.0 Mil 11.2 10.0* 8.1* 10.1
Social Integration, mean (SD) 3.3 (1.6) 3.4* (1.5) 3.7* (1.5) 3.4 (1.6)
Municipal gross migration rate, Mean 11.9 9.0* 7.2* 9.8
Municipal per Capita income (¥), mean 402,837.1 290,711.4* 39,373.0* 286,172.6
 (Natural Log) (12.5) (11.9)* (10.3)* (11.8)
N 6,787 6,836 3,334 16,957

Note: SRH = Self-rated health; C-SRH = Self-rated health comparison to age-peers.

*Statistically different from the younger municipalities at p ≤ .05.

Table 3.

Odds Ratios for Reporting Worse Health than Age-Peers, Conditional upon Random Effects

M1-B M2-B M3-B
OR (SE) OR (SE) OR (SE)
Baseline Municipal Age Structure
 “Younger” (Quintiles 1 & 2) (ref.) 1.00 (0.00) 1.00 (0.00) 1.00 (0.00)
 “Intermediate” (Quintiles 3 & 4) 1.30* (0.15) 1.35** (0.15) 1.27* (0.15)
 “Older” (Quintile 5) 1.50** (0.21) 1.77*** (0.24) 1.40* (0.24)
Change in Municipality % 65-plus (between survey waves) 1.08 (0.08) 1.10 (0.08) 1.08 (0.08)
Age 1.08** (0.02) 1.05** (0.02) 1.05** (0.02)
Age Squared 0.99* (0.00) 0.99*** (0.00) 0.99*** (0.00)
Education
 (Did not answer) 1.58 (0.52) 1.58 (0.53)
 No HS 1.00 (0.00) 1.00 (0.00)
 Some/Completed HS 0.92 (0.11) 0.93 (0.11)
 >High School 0.63** (0.11) 0.66** (0.12)
Income
 (Did not answer) 0.93 (0.10) 0.93 (0.10)
 <¥1.2 Mil 1.13 (0.11) 1.11 (0.11)
 ≥¥1,2 Mil-<¥3.0 Mil 1.00 (0.00) 1.00 (0.00)
 ≥¥3.0 Mil-<¥5.0 Mil 0.75** (0.08) 0.75** (0.08)
 ≥¥5.0 Mil 0.61** (0.10) 0.62** (0.10)
Female 1.16 (0.13) 1.16 (0.13)
Working (ref.=not working) 0.28*** (0.03) 0.27*** (0.03)
Married (ref.=not married) 1.11 (0.11) 1.11 (0.12)
Social Integration 0.65*** (0.02) 0.65*** (0.02)
Municipal Gross Migration Rate 1.00 (0.01)
Municipal (Log) Per Capita Income (¥) 0.89** (0.04)
Entry Cohort (ref: Wave 1)
 Wave 2 0.82 (0.16) 1.04 (0.20) 1.04 (0.20)
 Wave 4 0.63*** (0.10) 0.91 (0.15) 0.90 (0.15)
 Wave 5 0.84 (0.10) 0.96 (0.12) 0.96 (0.12)
Random Effect (SD): Intercept 2.45 (0.08) 2.15 (0.08) 2.14 (0.08)
Random Effect (SD): Slope 0.03 (0.00) 0.03 (0.00) 0.03 (0.00)
AIC 11,115 10,522 10,518
Log Likelihood −5,509 −5,240 −5,236
N 16,528 16,528 16,528

Note: *p ≤ .05; **p ≤ .01; ***p ≤ .001.

 

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