Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages
Table 1.
Descriptive Statistics and Bivariate Analysis by Age Structure Categories, National Survey of Japanese Elderly Adults, Waves 1–7 (n = 16,957)
| Baseline age structure of residential municipality (% 65-plus) | Quintiles 1 and 2 (“Younger”) | Quintiles 3&4 (“Intermediate”) | Quintile 5 (“Older”) | Total sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair/poor SRH (%), (SD) | 16.0 (0.4) | 16.8 (0.4) | 19.0* (0.4) | 16.9 (0.4) |
| Worse C-SRH (%), (SD) | 11.4 (0.3) | 13.1* (0.4) | 14.4* (0.4) | 12.7 (0.3) |
| % 65-plus at baseline; mean (SD) | 8.4 (1.4) | 12.5* (1.2) | 17.5* (2.8) | 11.7 (3.7) |
| Change in Municipality % 65-plus (between survey waves); mean (SD) | 1.4 (0.6) | 1.5* (0.5) | 1.7* (0.7) | 1.5 (0.6) |
| Age, mean (SD) | 72.8 (7.2) | 73.1 (7.2) | 72.8 (7.3) | 72.9 (7.2) |
| Female (%) | 58.5 | 55.1* | 56.7 | 56.8 |
| Married (%) | 60.0 | 63.1* | 65.4* | 62.3 |
| Working (%) | 22.7 | 27.0* | 32.6* | 26.4 |
| Education (%): | ||||
| No answer | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| No high school | 39.3 | 41.1* | 46.4* | 41.5 |
| Some/completed high school | 41.4 | 43.0 | 41.4 | 42.0 |
| >High school | 17.9 | 13.9* | 10.7* | 14.8 |
| Income (%): | ||||
| Did not answer | 15.6 | 15.1 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
| <¥1.2 Mil | 17.6 | 23.1* | 25.5* | 21.4 |
| ≥¥1,2 Mil-<¥3.0 Mil | 36.3 | 32.9 | 31.3* | 33.9 |
| ≥¥3.0 Mil-<¥5.0 Mil | 19.3 | 18.9 | 18.1 | 18.9 |
| ≥¥5.0 Mil | 11.2 | 10.0* | 8.1* | 10.1 |
| Social Integration, mean (SD) | 3.3 (1.6) | 3.4* (1.5) | 3.7* (1.5) | 3.4 (1.6) |
| Municipal gross migration rate, Mean | 11.9 | 9.0* | 7.2* | 9.8 |
| Municipal per Capita income (¥), mean | 402,837.1 | 290,711.4* | 39,373.0* | 286,172.6 |
| (Natural Log) | (12.5) | (11.9)* | (10.3)* | (11.8) |
| N | 6,787 | 6,836 | 3,334 | 16,957 |
Note: SRH = Self-rated health; C-SRH = Self-rated health comparison to age-peers.
*Statistically different from the younger municipalities at p ≤ .05.
Table 3.
Odds Ratios for Reporting Worse Health than Age-Peers, Conditional upon Random Effects
| M1-B | M2-B | M3-B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | (SE) | OR | (SE) | OR | (SE) | |
| Baseline Municipal Age Structure | ||||||
| “Younger” (Quintiles 1 & 2) (ref.) | 1.00 | (0.00) | 1.00 | (0.00) | 1.00 | (0.00) |
| “Intermediate” (Quintiles 3 & 4) | 1.30* | (0.15) | 1.35** | (0.15) | 1.27* | (0.15) |
| “Older” (Quintile 5) | 1.50** | (0.21) | 1.77*** | (0.24) | 1.40* | (0.24) |
| Change in Municipality % 65-plus (between survey waves) | 1.08 | (0.08) | 1.10 | (0.08) | 1.08 | (0.08) |
| Age | 1.08** | (0.02) | 1.05** | (0.02) | 1.05** | (0.02) |
| Age Squared | 0.99* | (0.00) | 0.99*** | (0.00) | 0.99*** | (0.00) |
| Education | ||||||
| (Did not answer) | 1.58 | (0.52) | 1.58 | (0.53) | ||
| No HS | 1.00 | (0.00) | 1.00 | (0.00) | ||
| Some/Completed HS | 0.92 | (0.11) | 0.93 | (0.11) | ||
| >High School | 0.63** | (0.11) | 0.66** | (0.12) | ||
| Income | ||||||
| (Did not answer) | 0.93 | (0.10) | 0.93 | (0.10) | ||
| <¥1.2 Mil | 1.13 | (0.11) | 1.11 | (0.11) | ||
| ≥¥1,2 Mil-<¥3.0 Mil | 1.00 | (0.00) | 1.00 | (0.00) | ||
| ≥¥3.0 Mil-<¥5.0 Mil | 0.75** | (0.08) | 0.75** | (0.08) | ||
| ≥¥5.0 Mil | 0.61** | (0.10) | 0.62** | (0.10) | ||
| Female | 1.16 | (0.13) | 1.16 | (0.13) | ||
| Working (ref.=not working) | 0.28*** | (0.03) | 0.27*** | (0.03) | ||
| Married (ref.=not married) | 1.11 | (0.11) | 1.11 | (0.12) | ||
| Social Integration | 0.65*** | (0.02) | 0.65*** | (0.02) | ||
| Municipal Gross Migration Rate | 1.00 | (0.01) | ||||
| Municipal (Log) Per Capita Income (¥) | 0.89** | (0.04) | ||||
| Entry Cohort (ref: Wave 1) | ||||||
| Wave 2 | 0.82 | (0.16) | 1.04 | (0.20) | 1.04 | (0.20) |
| Wave 4 | 0.63*** | (0.10) | 0.91 | (0.15) | 0.90 | (0.15) |
| Wave 5 | 0.84 | (0.10) | 0.96 | (0.12) | 0.96 | (0.12) |
| Random Effect (SD): Intercept | 2.45 | (0.08) | 2.15 | (0.08) | 2.14 | (0.08) |
| Random Effect (SD): Slope | 0.03 | (0.00) | 0.03 | (0.00) | 0.03 | (0.00) |
| AIC | 11,115 | 10,522 | 10,518 | |||
| Log Likelihood | −5,509 | −5,240 | −5,236 | |||
| N | 16,528 | 16,528 | 16,528 | |||
Note: *p ≤ .05; **p ≤ .01; ***p ≤ .001.