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Californians who buy their health insurance through the state’s exchange will have more sticker shock next year when their rates increase by an average 12.5 percent statewide.

But consumers in most Bay Area counties will see much smaller increases — from an average 4.3 percent to 8.3 percent — according to data released Tuesday by Covered California, the state-run “Obamacare” exchange that allows individuals and small businesses to purchase health insurance at federally subsidized rates.

What’s more, said exchange CEO Peter Lee, rates across the state would have dropped about another 3 percent if the 11 insurers offering plans on the exchange weren’t so worried about the Trump administration’s potential to undermine the Affordable Care Act.

“We were hopeful that this year we would be back to normal,” Lee told reporters during a Tuesday morning press call. But “uncertainty in Washington is affecting consumers today.”

Lee also noted that while all plans on the exchange will return to the market in 2018,  Anthem Blue Cross of California will no longer sell plans in many areas of the state — except for Santa Clara County, the Central Valley and certain Northern California counties.

Insurers’ worries come even as the latest attempt by congressional Republicans to repeal and replace Obamacare failed Friday when the U.S. Senate couldn’t pass a so-called “skinny repeal” plan.

But on Tuesday, Lee said Trump could still weaken Obamacare marketplaces across the country. The president could stop enforcing the individual mandate that requires everyone to purchase insurance; refuse to publicize the sign-up period to buy insurance through health care exchanges, and cut billions in certain subsidies for low-income Obamacare enrollees.

For now, the highest average rate hike in the greater Bay Area of 12.5 percent continues to hit consumers along the Central Coast — Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito counties.

Santa Clara County will see an average rate hike of 10.4 percent, followed by Alameda County at 8.3 percent and Contra Costa County at 8.2 percent.

Average increases for Marin, Napa, Solano and Sonoma counties will be 7.4 percent, followed by San Francisco County at 6.6 percent and San Mateo County at 4.3 percent.

By comparison, the average statewide rate in 2017 shot up by 13.2 percent, mostly because two federal programs created to cushion insurers from losing money on policies under the Affordable Care Act expired this year.

Jonathan Greer, an Oakland-based independent health insurance broker, agreed doubts surrounding what Trump might do are a huge factor in rate hikes.

“Make no mistake: Insurance companies are cutting back their coverage areas and raising rates so much in response to the uncertainty coming out of Washington,” said Greer.

Others seemed more resigned to Tuesday’s news.

“I actually kind of expected this,” said San Jose resident Brian Carter, who buys an unsubsidized Kaiser plan for his family through the exchange and is preparing for an average rate increase of 10.4 percent.

“You don’t like to see your rates go up, but with the uncertainty going on, insurance companies have to make money somewhere, and ratepayers are the ones who have to pay for it,” said the 55-year-old, who formerly worked in tech sales and marketing.

Greer also was alarmed by Anthem’s retreat from all but three regions around the state. Even though every region of Northern California will have at least two carriers offering coverage, he said losing Anthem around most of the Bay Area is “a big blow.”

Lee said 153,000 people currently enrolled in Anthem plans will need to select a new plan for 2018. The CEO tried to soften the impact by saying that 84 percent of doctors who contract with Anthem are available in other health plans offered through the exchange.

Still, the Affordable Care Act’s generous subsidies should help lessen the pain for most Covered California’s 1.4 million enrollees, who earn between 139 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level.

Anyone who earns between 139 percent and 250 percent of the poverty threshold — between $34,200 and $61,500 for a family of four — also is eligible for additional reductions, which lower out-of-pocket costs such as co-pays and deductibles.

About 7 million Americans, including roughly 650,000 Californians, receive those extra subsidies. And the federal government reimburses insurers on the exchanges about $7 billion to reduce the cost of the co-pays and deductibles for those low-income people.

Ending those subsidies would send many premiums soaring because health insurers would have to pick up those costs themselves, and many companies would also likely flee the markets, experts say.

Covered California continues to seek clarification from the Trump administration about its intentions regarding the cost-sharing payments. But Lee said if the exchange doesn’t receive confirmation by the end of the month that the payments will continue, an additional average 12.4 percent surcharge will be attached to plans when enrollment opens Nov. 1.

AVERAGE PROPOSED RATES INCREASES FOR 2018

San Benito, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties: 12.5 percent

Santa Clara County: 10.4 percent

Alameda County: 8.3 percent

Contra Costa County: 8.2 percent

Marin, Napa, Solano and Sonoma counties: 7.4 percent

San Francisco County: 6.6 percent

San Mateo County: 4.3 percent

Source: Covered California